Having accurate COVID-19 case rates to use in the modelling is also a major challenge now, since many people are testing at home and not reporting, or not testing at all, said Russell. "And then we have human behaviour as well." As an example, he cited whether people choose to mask. "But at the end of the day … this is a virus that loves to change," he said. You can model based on previous waves, similar-size populations, or population densities. Modelling is difficult, he said, because there are so many variables involved. Rod Russell, a professor of virology and immunology at Memorial University in Newfoundland and Labrador, said he isn't surprised the government is reluctant to release modelling data, "because it could turn out to be very wrong." The department has previously released some modelling data when "significant trends" have been identified and supported by other evidence, particularly during the early days of the pandemic in 2020 and earlier this year at the beginning of the Omicron wave, he added. If that changes, we'll be sure to release this information publicly, and to contact you, and other members of the media, for your awareness." "At this time, the department sees no need to share this information. "Few, if any" provinces or territories regularly release COVID-19 modelling, "as that information alone has the potential to be misinterpreted and may not present an accurate depiction of the current situation," he said. Modelling is not typically released publicly, Bowie said, "because the numbers fluctuate daily, and are dependent on the information available at any given time." At this time, the department sees no need to share this information. Nor did he respond to questions about what period the latest modelling covers. "Should a specific trend or point of concern emerge through these modelling exercises, the department would share that information publicly."īowie did not respond to a request for examples of what might represent "a specific trend or point of concern." Yves Léger, acting chief medical officer of health, said the 'main message to convey' is that COVID-19 increases are expected. In a followup email, Department of Health spokesperson Adam Bowie said the department is "continuously monitoring COVID-19 activity" in the province to assess the risks, "and part of that oversight involves modelling."ĭr. "We certainly don't want people to put too much emphasis on that." "So it's important for the public to remain aware and up-to-date on the COVID activity that's happening."Īnd up-to-date on vaccines and boosters, he said.Īsked to clarify whether the province is still doing modelling, and if not, why not, Léger said, "it provides an idea … but it's not always accurate." "At this point in time, you know, I think the important message really is that we expect to see increases, and that's what people need to plan for. Yves Léger, the province's acting chief medical officer of health, replied, "We don't have specific modelling based on that." The New Brunswick government refuses to release its latest COVID-19 projections.īut one immunologist predicts "a bigger surge than we've ever seen."Īnd a behavioural scientist warns the lack of public data is creating "a false sense of security."ĭepartment of Health officials have repeatedly said in recent months they anticipate an increase in "COVID activity" later this fall and into the winter.īut when asked what the province's modelling shows for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, Dr.
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